Iran Continued

As we said last week, the election results remain unchanged and Ahmajinedad remains in power backed by the mullahs. Some cracks have appeared in the system but nothing significant for the short-medium term. Long term is a different story, however it will be a very long time before any kind of democratic system replaces the theocratic system. The Republican Guard Corps, much stronger now after the Gulf War, is standing by to protect the regime. It has not been used yet since the "green revolution" threat has not been all that significant. Lots of noise and theater for the media who like demonstrations and insist on calling them revolutions when they are not. And of course Obama's response was muted because he did not want to call attention to the U.S. role but everyone knows that the U.S. and U.K. intelligence services contributed some mischief to create the disturbances. He still wants to sit down and talk to them even though Ahmajinedad blasted us, the U.K. and Saudi Arabia again today.

Iran

Well, the elections are over, the votes quickly counted and guess who won? You are right. The magic duck just came down and hit you with $200.00. The streets of Tehran teemed with protesters and the U.S. media jumped all over this "Green Revolution." Notice how all the people looked like you and me? Academics, students, professionals, all with cell phones and Twittering away. Point is only about 28% of the country are connected to the web. And the riots are in Tehran led by the elite. What about the rest of the country? Reality is that all those other folks support Mr.Ahmadinejad. They are poor and live in the country side and remember the war with Iraq and their suffering. They want stability and to be left alone in peace. Prayers were offered today by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the University of Tehran, where several students were attacked and killed on June 14, by you guessed it, Basij militiamen allied to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. And last but not least the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), of which the Basij militia are proxy (read civilian thugs) are poised to jump into the fray. Doesn't look too good for democracy. But don't be fooled by this word. Iran is a theocracy in spite of the elections, rigged or not. The conservatives led by Rafsanjani (remember him?) are paralyzed. The situation is extraordinarily complex and no one is sure how it will turn out. But remember all of the political parties and all of the clerics hate the West and the U.S. and U.K. in particular. And Pres. Obama's response to all this has been lukewarm to say the least (no surprise). Stay tuned.